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INTRODUCTION
A general election in India is a significant democratic exercise where citizens vote to elect members to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. Held every five years, these elections determine the composition of the central government and influence the direction of the country's policies. The general election process is overseen by the Election Commission of India, ensuring it is conducted fairly and transparently across all states and union territories.
Aim:
This project aims to visually compare the results of the general elections held in 2019 and 2024. By examining various factors, such as total votes, women and men candidates participated, party performance, demographic influences, regional variations, we will identify patterns, shifts, and trends in voter behavior over the five-year period. This comparative analysis will provide insights into the changing political landscape of India and highlight the factors contributing to the electoral outcomes in both years.
The study will explore how these changes reflect the evolving preferences of the Indian electorate, the effectiveness of different political strategies, and the implications for future elections.
Study Area Description: General Elections 2019 and 2024:
The study area for this project encompasses the entire geographical and political landscape of India, which is divided into 543 parliamentary constituencies. Each of these constituencies elects one Member of Parliament (MP) to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. The election results from 2019 and 2024 will be analyzed to identify trends, shifts, and patterns in electoral behavior across this diverse nation.
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North India: Includes states such as Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. This region is characterized by its significant population density, agricultural productivity, and major urban centers.
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South India: Comprises Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, known for its economic growth, cultural diversity, and coastal regions.
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West India: Encompasses Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Goa. This region is notable for its economic hubs, industrial areas, and significant cultural landmarks.
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East India: Includes West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, and Jharkhand. It features a mix of urban and rural areas, with varied economic activities and cultural heritage.
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Northeastern India: Covers the eight states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, and Sikkim. Known for its ethnic diversity, mountainous terrain, and strategic location.
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Central India: Comprising Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, this region is central to India's geographic and economic landscape, with a mix of urban and rural constituencies.
Points to remember:
In 2019, a significant administrative change occurred in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir that impacted the electoral landscape of the region. The key event was the bifurcation of the state into two separate Union Territories: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. This change was implemented through the abrogation of Article 370 and the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019.
Methodology:
-The software's used in the project are ArcGIS Pro and QGIS.
-The project’s crucial step is collecting the raw data which is the basic for all GIS spatial analysis.
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Raw data collection :
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Indian Government ‘s website Election Commission of India (eci.gov.in) has the data for 2019 in excel and for 2024 it is in digital format.
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Shapefile: Need to download constituency shape file which can be used for election purpose from
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Preparation for project: Need to arrange the data so that it is compatible to work in ArcGIS pro environment.
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Loading ArcGIS project into QGIS environment.
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Export the map created as a web map using a plugin in QGIS.
1.Raw data collection:
-The data for both the elections were collected from the above mentioned website.
-For 2019 several excel sheets where downloaded:
From the above excels, a single excel was created which aligns with the aim of the project.
The excel comprises OBJECTID, state, PC, PC name, District, Name of candidate, Sex, Party, Abbreviation, Total votes, Male candidates and female candidates.
For 2024, the excel was manually created from the website since it was in digital form as mentioned below.
2.Shapefile:
-Need to download the shapefile which has the election constituencies. GIS shapefiles for India's parliamentary and assembly constituencies including polling booth localities (uni-bielefeld.de)
-Until 2019, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh were together as a single state in India, officially known as the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
-On August 5, 2019, the Government of India abrogated Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, and reorganized the state into two separate Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir (with a legislative assembly) and Ladakh (without a legislative assembly). This reorganization officially came into effect on October 31, 2019.
-And so a separate shapefile for Ladakh was created for the election result purpose.
3.Preparation for project:
As we have the excel for analysis, we need to create fields mentioned in the excel and do joins and relates to join the excel with the table. After joins and relates need to remove joins by assigning the values of the excel joined to the relevant field created in the attribute table. Now the shapefile is ready for the project.
4.Loading ArcGIS Pro project into QGIS environment:
Need to open QGIS and click Add data and click Directory and select the gdb of the project. It will be opened in QGIS.
Open the symbology of the layers loaded and select Categorized colour to give unique colour for each party.
To get the below output.
Repeat the same for the 2024 layer too.
Exporting as a web map:
-Now the map is ready to be exported as an interactive web map.
-The plugin needed for this is QGIS2web. Go to plugins …manage plugins. search QGIS2web…click install.
-Now open the installed plugin from the web from the main toolbar.
-A dialogue box opens with 4 tabs: layers, appearance, export, settings.
-In layers: Select the fields to be shown the map and should the constituency be highlighted when the cursor moves on it and settings related to it.
In Appearance:
Given the position of the title, Legend needs a locator tab, measuring tool and settings related to it.
In export:
Give the folder location where it should be stored or should it be a temporary file.
Click Ok.
Output:
Folders will be downloaded automatically. Click the index.html to open the web map.
Repeat the same for 2024 and get the interactive map.
CONCLUSION
As general elections determine the composition of the central government and influence the direction of the country's policies creating an interactive map for both years will provide us with information like:
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The parties which have won both in 2019 and 2024 in the same constituencies.
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The constituencies in which a party would have won in 2019 but not in 2024 which can be helpful for finding its reasons
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Independent candidates have won more in 2024 when compared to 2019, giving us information that people give way to newcomers. In 2019 only 2 have won and in 2024 7 have won.
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Compared to 2019, INC has secured more seats 51 in 2019 and 100 in 2024 showing us the shift in polling trend. This is shown in the QGIS or ArcGIS Pro project contents pane. (show count)
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And the map also shows us how many male and female candidates have contested in both the years. When compared to 2019, many female candidates have contested and few have won in 2024.
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Many new parties have emerged in 2024.
Like this, informative insights can be gathered from web maps. Which can be used for future election purposes.
-The legends listed below show the detail of the parties and their counts.
LEGENDS SHOWING THE PARTY AND THE NUMBER OF SEATS: 2019
LEGENDS SHOWING THE PARTY AND THE NUMBER OF SEATS: 2024
